Before TikTok, everyone thinks Kuaishou is the future


What is the content that only you can distribute?

The first live video broadcast was conducted randomly at ten o’clock last night, with a total of 23,000 viewers and 1,000 people online at the same time in the middle of the night. The audience was mostly classmates from various Internet companies. A thousand people with similar background and knowledge structure typed at the same time. The live broadcast room with one thousand people online created an atmosphere of 100,000 people online at the same time. It should be that many practitioners’ circles of friends have been screened, just like a small circle of science and technology Spring Festival Gala.


Judging from the public opinion in the past two days, the live broadcast of the video account seems to be more exciting than the short video of the video account. Only 20,000 people watched a three-hour live broadcast, which is completely negligible on any short video live broadcast platform with a certain size today. But Lin Shao, who was studying at ten o’clock, commented that there is finally a live broadcast suitable for us to watch.


Thinking of when I first came to Beijing in 2012, which shopping mall I went to see was expensive, I felt that I couldn’t afford it. Until I found the Daoertai Market near Xiaoying Road in the Asian Games Village, which was similar to the farmer’s market in the county town, I felt very happy that my life was saved. I could afford everything. Later, when I saw Pinduoduo, I felt very kind, and finally someone dedicated to providing richer consumer solutions for the poor. In addition, when I lived in Sanlitun in 2014, I would often go to Uniqlo. I found that I couldn’t wear clothes. As a fat man, I felt that if I wanted to buy clothes, I had to lose weight. Can be worn. Later, I saw that Yang Tianzhen went to make plus-size women’s clothing. Although the society regards thinness as beauty, shouldn’t fat people be served?


The problem I want to talk about is actually that the live broadcasts we usually watch are mainly games, singing, goods and shows. In fact, there are not many types and they are not long-tailed. For example, if you attend a wedding in a small city in the third and fourth tier, and then want to broadcast something to relatives and classmates, there may not be a good product to serve today. To extend this, there are not many core gameplays that have been verified in public domain live broadcasts. The WeChat live broadcast seems to have the possibility of more different content. In addition to the Internet, there are also various circles in all walks of life.


Content platforms need to answer a core question: what is the content that only you can distribute? Because in the long run, 99% of the content is the same on all platforms, and one source of water supplies the world. In addition to competing distribution efficiency, the remaining 1% of the content is unique to this platform ecology + algorithm + product. Of course, the question is, what is the proportion of this 1% of supply and consumption, if the corresponding consumption plate is larger, the product moat will be wider.

Before TikTok, everyone thinks Kuaishou is the future

Before 2018, the market generally believed that the product that better represented the future of short video was Kuaishou.


The development of China Mobile’s short video was initially performed on Weibo on Tencent’s Weibo in 2013, but in 2014 it was overtaken by Sina Weibo’s Miaopai and Meitu Xiuxiu’s Meipai.


At the end of 2014, Miaopai was first surpassed by Meipai. At the beginning of 2015, it was discovered that Kuaishou had a stronger development momentum. Miaopai first made a pomegranate video with a product style close to connotation, and also made a copy of dubsmash. After the show was enlarged and popularized on Weibo in 2015, the style of the product was still faster, with a few celebrities on the first screen having funny counterparts and a bunch of vulgar sketches.


Two or three years before Douyin, the product that kept pace with Kuaishou was Meipai. At that time, Kuaishou was low and Meipai was fine. When Douyin quickly completed the accumulation of talents in 2017, Meipai’s eyes were still on Kuaishou. Because by 2017 Meipai’s daily livelihood is 10 million, Miaopai Xiaokaxiu has long lost its voice, but Kuaishou has tens of millions of DAU. At this time, Meipai only wants to beat Kuaishou. In 2018, Meipai wanted to imitate Kuaishou’s absolute algorithmic distribution, and the content is good and bad to be determined by the algorithm, abandoning the master’s operation and content creativity.

After abandoning good content and sticking to it, Meipai was occupied by food broadcast and middle school students, and the talent was further lost to Douyin. , Because the young fashionistas at that time could only take on Douyin. As a result, retention fell sharply after half a year, Douyin turned out again, and the story of Meipai came to an end.


When ByteDance made a short video, the product that was heavily bet was also a small volcano video. Douyin did not appear in Zhang Yiming’s OKR until very late. Because based on a simple judgment, the DAU of Kuaishou in China is much higher than that of in the world, so Toutiao’s choice is to be a low-profile version of Kuaishou that users can make money.

Interest Map vs Relationship Map

In 2010, Twitter and Facebook were still at the same level. This year, Twitter grew faster than Facebook. Zuckerberg said at the time: “If Twitter can grow for 12 or 18 months, it will surpass Facebook in scale within a year.”


In 2010, Facebook proposed to make a social graph, and Twitter proposed to build a “interest graph” rather than a social graph where individuals maintain acquaintances. It is the meaning of the public network against the private network, which also causes the sharing behavior of users in different products to be different.


Because Twitter allows one-way following, the content is public by default, which is what you want to be, not who you were. You can follow celebrities, media, brands and other things of interest. This makes twitter very suitable for the public opinion field of propaganda.


But Facebook also launched the “Like” button in 10 years. Users can transfer their favorite characters, places, content and events back to Facebook to share with friends. Facebook also uses this button to get more user activity streams and interest maps. .



As a result, Twitter’s CEO and product development route have been swaying in the following years. The input box was switched back and forth between “What are You Doing?” and “What’s Happening?”. As a result, I missed the pictures, short videos and live broadcast opportunities of Instagram and Twitch. The solidified user perception is difficult to change.


In April 2016, Twitter changed its category in the Apple Store from a social network to news.

Social Map vs Web Page Map

In 2012, there was a popular argument in the industry that Google controlled the web graph. Facebook controls the social graph, the social graph. The web graph connects web pages together, and the social graph connects people together. Once Facebook launches an enhanced social search, it will be possible to overtake the existing overlord Google.


When Facebook was born, it banned search engine crawlers from crawling the content on the website. Google could only gritted his teeth and watched more and more social content on the Internet but could not get it. Then in 2007, Facebook and Microsoft Bing and Microsoft Yahoo search cooperation allows social results information to appear on their search service.


Facebook does not allow Google to search its data on the grounds that it considers user privacy. In response to this deliberately uncooperative differential treatment, Page was very annoyed and accused FB of taking the user hostage and detaining the user’s data.


Google should really be nervous, because the building of search is based on three things:


First, people write a lot of things on the Internet.

Second, the Internet links them all together.

Third, everyone clicks on these things every day and gives feedback.

Now there is the fourth thing, more and more people like these things every day.


After Page returned as CEO, Google has been heavily involved in social networking, although G+ has always been a ghost town.

Subscribing to Content or Following People

Twitter changed three CEOs in the first four years of its founding, which brought constant swings in the company’s route. Jack Dorsey and Evan Williams have a very different understanding of how Twitter should be positioned.


Jack Dorsey loves social interaction and believes that Twitter should be a locator. Users use it to tell others where they are and what they are doing. It is a place to show themselves. When Jack was the CEO, the prompt in the Twitter input box was “What are You Doing?”


Evan Williams is a shy programmer. He thinks Twitter should be a place to share information about where others are and what they are doing. When Evan was the CEO, Twitter’s prompt was “What’s Happening?”


There is a classic example in the Twitter discussion. When a fire broke out in the corner of the street, Evan thought he would tweet “There was a fire in the market on Third Avenue.” Jack would tweet “I’m on Third Avenue.” A fire was seen around the corner of the market.”



After Jack Dorsey returned to Twitter, Twitter changed his category in the Apple Store from social networks to news. Jack Dorsey said in an interview with Bloomberg:


“In the past, when people heard about Twitter, they thought they had to post a message to use this platform, but now everyone has changed to “I can see what is happening in the world and activities through Twitter”…Twitter is a medium of conversation .”

Resolving those unresolved Expression Needs

The biggest business opportunity in the past ten years has come from smart phones. After the mobile phone has been transformed from a communication tool to a mobile computing terminal, it allows everyone to send and receive information anytime and anywhere, which is equivalent to connecting human beings online for the first time in history.


From PC to mobile, this is not only a change in equipment and products, but a change in the population. New products can reach a new and larger population through mobile phones. The migration of people means a radical change in the model, and new business opportunities and new products will appear.

A picture often flashes in my head, which is the real-time online number of Tencent QQ. Before PC, because of the penetration rate and the portability of the device, there still existed online and offline. Now everyone on the mobile phone is online anytime, anywhere.


They are all online, and what may be missing is the integrity of the infrastructure. When I was in college, more than 90% of the campuses used China Mobile’s dynamic zone. The instructors and classmates on campus also used Fetion, but the embarrassment was that I was a telecommunications user and could not register to use Fetion, so I must There is also a QQ group. If Fetion is to be used by everyone, it must cover 100% of the organization’s relationship chain. Even if 9 of the 10 surrounding people use Fetion, the relationship chain is incomplete, and a one-thousandth difference is incomplete.


Scale can be personalized, and personalization can be scaled. The advantage of social networks is that it can distribute all information and services, and today’s WeChat theoretically has covered 100% of the relationship chain.


For the video number, the picture in my mind is to light up all the stars in the sky and connect them in series.


All those unsatisfied expression demands need a scene and product to carry.